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Forecast and pace

How the book is building against the same window last year, what was picked up recently, and where each night is forecast to finish.

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Who this is for: Manager, Owner, Read-only — requires rms.forecast.read. Where: Revenue → Forecast & Pace

Analytics tells you where the window stands. This page tells you how it got there and where it is heading: pace against the same window a year ago, the pickup captured recently, and a per-date demand forecast.

The metrics themselves — occupancy, room-nights, room revenue — are the ones defined on Analytics. Nothing is redefined here.

Read the pace cards#

  1. Set From and To to the stay window you are trading. The page opens on the next fourteen nights.
  2. Read the four cards left to right.
Card What it answers
On the books What is booked for that window right now, in nights and revenue
Prior period What the same dates one year earlier hold
Pace vs. prior On the books minus prior, in room-nights — ahead or behind last year
Pickup since … Of what is on the books, how much was captured on or after the cutoff date

Two things to hold in mind while reading them:

  • The prior period is the same calendar dates minus 365 days. That is a like-for-like of dates, not of weekdays — comparing a window that contains two Saturdays with one that contains three will mislead you, and no arithmetic here corrects for it.
  • Prior is a finished number; on-the-books is not. Last year's window has stopped selling and this one has not, so "behind last year" this far out is normal. Pace is a trend to watch across days, not a verdict to read once.

Pickup is what makes that trend readable. It counts only the bookings captured since the cutoff — booked recently, for the window you are looking at — so it separates "the book grew" from "the book was always that size". Left alone, the cutoff sits a week before the most recent booking on file.

Read the demand forecast#

Below the cards, one row per night in the window:

Column What it shows
On the books That night's occupancy as it stands
Forecast occ. Where that night is expected to finish
Forecast rooms The same expectation as rooms out of capacity

The forecast is a pace heuristic, and a deliberately explainable one: it takes the room-nights still unsold for that date and expects to sell a share of them, a share that grows with how far out the date is — roughly two percent of the remaining rooms per day of lead time, and never more than eighty percent of what is left. A date tomorrow is forecast at close to its current position because there is little time left to fill it; a date three months out is forecast well above it.

That has an honest consequence: the forecast knows nothing about your market. It has no view of a citywide event, a competitor closing, or last year's shape. It is a projection of your own booking pace, and when you know something it does not, you are right and it is wrong.

The forecast badge is colour-coded at the same thresholds the pricing engine uses — at or above 80% is the level that argues for raising a rate, at or below 40% the level that argues for dropping one. Those two numbers are the guardrails described in rate recommendations and parity, which is where the forecast stops being a report and becomes a price.

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Read this page before generating recommendations, not after. Recommendations are generated from the forecast over the window you give them, so a window whose forecast you have not looked at is a price move you cannot explain.

What's next#